After yesterday’s post, everyone should be up to speed on all Raptorian matters. If you aren’t, simply CLICK HERE.
When the dust settles from Colange-polozza the Raptors are going to be a team with (approximately) 16 players under contract; they will be right up against the luxury tax threshold; the luxury tax threshold is trending downwards.
No… We’ve got to dig deeper.
What’s the end game? Has Colangelo designed a roster to compliment Chris Bosh, or, has he designed a roster to remain competitive when Chris Bosh leaves via trade or free agency?
Nyet! Deeper.
Do we have a team of players on the rise? Have they peaked? What do the cold, hard numbers say? Does Chris Bosh have the potential to become a superstar? Would we have seen it already?
Halt!! There’s only one question. Can the Raptors, with their current core-group, win a Championship? We’re going to get there today. Eventually.
Raptor Salaries: The folks over at Hoops Hype haven’t updated the Raptors 2009/10 salary picture yet, good thing I’m here.
Click on this linkity linkity for an updated spread sheet of Raptor salaries, including an assumed salary for Jarrett Jack (if the Pacers decline) and Chris Bosh if the Raptors sign him to an extension.
A payroll of $65,000,000 (plus) will put the Raps into the top ten in the NBA. More interesting – at least, to the author – is the prospective payroll of the Raptors (if Bosh re-ups) through the 2012/13 season. A core of Bosh, Turkoglu, Bargnani and Calderon is going to cost approximately $45,000,000 per year. When you include DeRozan’s rookie deal (good through 2014) and at least a few more draft picks / role players, the current makeup of the Raptors precludes them from signing anyone of consequence for the foreseeable future. Moreover, if MLSE decides that they don’t want to pay the luxury tax, the Raptors could be forced to deal one of their top-four, (who, hereafter will be referred to as The Inflexible Four) because the NBA Salary Cap is moving backwards faster than Bob Ryan’s credibility. (Ryan pronounced Brock Lesnar’s name les-NAAARRRR yesterday. On purpose. Do some phonetic preparation, Ryan.)
Finally we have the looming specter of a lockout in 2011/12 and the very real possibility that NBA players will have to wear rape-diapers because of David Stern. I don’t know what that lockout will yield. Neither do you. Neither does Bryan Colangelo. So, there.
All of the above information takes place in a world where the Raptors tie themselves to one Christopher Bosh. So what if that doesn’t happen? Again, that’s why I’m here.
Before we get into who replaces Bosh, let’s examine the Raptors without him.
A TurkishItalianSpanish combination of Turkoglu, Calderon and Bargnani makes the Raptors the most identifiably International team in the entire NBA.
This Foreign Threesome (which I highly recommend typing into Google) would make an average of $28,000,000 over the next four years. Am I crazy or does that nucleus – and the accompanying financial flexibility – seem much more intriguing than The Inflexible Four pushing us right up against the luxury tax every year?
Let’s imagine – just for a minute – that Colangelo likes The Foreign Threesome better. Okay… (This is going to be fun.)
Chris Bosh Trade Scenarios:
- The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Portland Trailblazers for Rudy Fernandez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw.
- Who doesn’t make this deal? By the way, all of the deals work in the ESPN NBA Trade Machine –
- The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Brian Cardinal, Kevin Love and… RICKY RUBIO!!
- OOOOOOOOHHHHHHH ricky RU-BI-O / ru-BI-O / ru-BI-OHH / rrrricky ru-BI-OHHHHHH! I’d take more about a Spanish point guard tandem of Calderon and Ricky Rubio but I fear that I may attempt to make love to a plate of Polvorón. Amazingly, I think that it’d be Minnesota who turns down this deal. The chances that they could re-sign Chris Bosh after next season are marginal, at best. So, why is it on the list? Simple: Their GM just selected two straight point guards with the 5th and 6th pick in the NBA Draft. Anything is possible.
- The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Golden State Warriors for Anthony Randolph and Monta Ellis.
- What’s that? Monta Ellis has a bad contract? He’s making a million more per year than Andrea Bargnani. And, lest we forget, Anthony Randolph might actually be the most fascinating player in the entire NBA.
If you can look past the idea of trading Bosh (assuming you’re against it) and envision the Raptors revamped roster after any one of the above scenarios, I think you’ll agree with me: This team is better off (with the Turkoglu signing / Bargnani extension in the bag) trading Chris Bosh for a group of young players either on a rookie-scale deal, or locked into reasonable long-term contracts.
Whatever your opinion, that isn’t the world that we live in. So, let’s look at what we have.
The Raptors in 2009/10 and beyond:
- What does Vegas think? My buddy EyeBLeaf and I have an ongoing bet about the Toronto Blue Jays. We picked a number of different categories and bet the Over/Under. The cumulative winner from those categories will take home $100 and the loser will have to procure a photograph with Mike Wilner (who I actually like now). Long story short, there was one category that we weighted more heavily than others: O/U Win Total, which Vegas set at 81.5. Four weeks ago, that number seemed preposterous. Now, it’s bang on. The lesson: Vegas knows, my friends. So, what does Vegas have to say about the 2009/10 Raptors: Well, for starters the Raptors are 66/1 to win the NBA Championship, far behind perennial powerhouses like: Philadelphia, Washington, New Orleans and New York (doesn’t count because the books are trying to lure the sucker bet from deranged Knicks fans all over the world). That’s not particularly promising; after all, the NBA isn’t the NFL where a team like the Rams (or Pats, Giants, Titans and Cardinals) can come out of nowhere to either win the title, or make an appearance in the title game. In the NBA, it just doesn’t happen. According to Vegas either Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Los Angeles, San Antonio or Denver are going to win the Championship. If I gave you the field, would you take that bet at even odds? I wouldn’t.
- Have we seen Chris Bosh’s ceiling? The short answer: Mostly. In his sixth full season, the Raptors dragged 77 games (4 off of career high), 22.7 ppg (career high), 10.0 rpg and 38 mpg out of him. That’s his offensive zenith, folks. Defensively, there’s still room for improvement. Health wise, there is not. Chris Bosh has played 450 games (not including international matches) without a serious injury.
- What can we expect from Hedo Turkoglu? Durability. Turkoglu has averaged 75 games per season over a nine-year NBA Career. Real or imagined, he seems to want the ball in his hands at the end of a game. (If you’re scoring at home, Chris Bosh is now the third option for end of game play-calling after Turkoglu and Calderon. Just saying.) He’s going to get you 11 – 13 ppg, and maybe most importantly, the Raptors will be able to unleash a front-line that is 254 inches tall. Good stuff.
- Cosa possiamo aspettarci da Andrea Bargnani? Michael Grange did a nice job on his blog From Deep of projecting what the Raptors invested in when they signed Bargnani to his extension. Grange mentions that Bargnani, through the final 46 games of last season averaged 18.1 / 6.0 / 46% / 43% from 3-point range. Could there be more of an upward trend? Perhaps. Would the above numbers be suitable for $10,000,000 per-year? Actually, yes. They would indeed.
- Can Jose Calderon survive and thrive in this league without a capable backup who plays 15 – 20 minutes a night over an extended period of time? No. Which is why the Jack deal would be a real boon for Colangelo. Jack is just good enough to push Jose and drill into some of the competitive fire that we saw during the TJ / Jose melodrama that played out over the most exciting Raptor regular season ever.
Where does that leave us in a world where Bosh signs an extension? Well, it leaves us with a lot of “ifs”.
If DeRozan is a good pick at #9.
If The Inflexible Four all stay healthy.
If Chris Bosh isn’t a flashier version of Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
If 46 games and snippets from his rookie season is enough to ignore a terrible middle-stanza from Andrea Bargnani.
If Calderon is an elite-level point guard.
If Jay Triano can actually coach.
If, if, if.
In my estimation, there are simply too many variables that could misfire; too many eggs in one basket, as it were. And that’s before we settle on a topic heretofore unmentioned in this (exceptionally) long post: Defense.
Who the hell is going to play defense? Are the Raptors shutting down Lebron when they play the Cavs, or Pierce when they play the Celtics? What about when they play the Magic and Vi… *Blacked out.*
The only way that I see the Raptors being anything more than a 44 – 48 win-team is if DeMar DeRozan is an above-average draft pick. By “above-average” I mean really, really good. Like, “top 2 in the draft” level good. Pinning all these hopes on a kid who showed up for 1/3 of the PAC 10 season seems a little backward for a team spending so much money on established NBA players.
I might be wrong. Bosh might be the guy. But even if he is, we’re not winning the title as presently constituted. I wish that wasn’t all that mattered.
But it is.
- SA.
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